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The Keystone pipeline project, which is important to secure the US independence of foreign oil is still a matter of politics.

The global supply chain can break in an instant, if smaller players fail. The threat which has been discussed many times by apocalyptic bloggers during the lehman bankruptcy seems now to manifest in increasing number of incidences. With an explosion and the destruction of a chemical plant at Evonik in Marl (Germany) it appears that the global supply of Nylon 12 products is been threatened. The article states that there are competitors which also produce Nylon 12, but the primary ingredient also derived from the damaged chemical plant. Nylon is widely used in the automotive industry amid its easy appliance and special resistance. After Fukushima we yet have another example that there are large opportunities in searching weak links in the global supply chain. (However the article misses to discuss the re-use and recycling potential of Nylon 12, so that Nylon production might not be an issue at all)

The Swiss Government recognized the strong increase in Eastern Europeans looking for jobs in Switzerland as a potential threat and implements regulations in accordance with the contracts concerning labor market liberalization. The concern is that labor markets will be distorted and integration efforts can not be fulfilled. While Western European countries suffer from wage depression and increasing crime rates as a consequence of uncontrolled labor market liberalization, and the absence of border controls, Switzerland still has the advantage of implementing such controls. While the designed EU foreign Minister Catherine Ashton raises concerns over this practice, one has to notice that the problems coming along with that practice have not been adequately addressed. A remark: If EU media would be allowed to publish the nationality or migration background of criminals or suspects on a daily basis, then the mood would rapidly change and become a threat to the European idea.

The Rajoy administration which claimed to do everything better than the former socialist government is now dealing with higher than expected deficits and failing interest rate stability. Five year bonds accelerated to more than 7 percent, even though the ECB does everything to intervene in the 10 year bond market. Rajoy's ministErs therefore had to acknowledge their increasing failure and release another set of emergency budget cuts over the Easter weekend. This comes just after they broke a series of promises days after they were made last Christmas. Holliday seasons prove to become interesting periods of emergency budget cuts. Given the trajectory Spain will soon become unable to keep its economy at the same pace, if inflation does not kick in.

FTD reports on a cancer drug, which Bayer offers for a monthly treatment rate at 5500 USD and now can be produced by an Indian generic firm which might offer the treatment at siginificant lower price. This could indicate a new level of trade war with India.

DMN reports on Greek banks which now are heavily loaded with transferring money to foreign accounts. Large movements are also been performed by parliament members, which is a strong indicator for a near term national collapse. The Situation in Island was similar, when several bankers and their friends took loans in Islandic crona and converted the money into foreign assets outside of Island.

Handelsblatt cites Philipp Roesler, FDP party leader and coalition member, who announced publically that Greek politicians seek to blackmail other countries. Roeslers public announcement caused harsh reactions by Greek politicians. Reality is that money has been distributed with very little tangible results to achieve a non expansionary Greek budget, so far.

Saudi Arabia has cut its oil production despite global tensions. A drop in Production could signal the end of Saudi Arabia's capacity to serve as an adjustable oil-production source.

DMN reports that according to bloomberg Portugal already initiated talks with consultants on a potential haircut. Following Greece's example Portugal might be the next candidate to trigger a credit event.Comment: The word haircut is just another word for bankruptcy as both implies that the country cannot meet its obligations.

Read the Market Intelligence Reports

06.02.2012

MI report week 6 - 2012

Euro Break-up most likely to happen sooner rather than later


28.10.2011

MI Report Week 44 2011

Riding the Trojan Horse

[DE] - Selected video of the week